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#46 | RE: The 2023 economy...your thoughts?
Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:16 pm (Last edited: Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:20 pm)
Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:16 pm (Last edited: Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:20 pm)
Zitat von BEARR im Beitrag #44 Yes. It's interesting to sense the implicit desperation in these CNBC professional so-called analysts to keep ginning up the uncertainty and then, swoop in and suggest a balm in all sorts of alternative gambles for the viewers to chase and spend. Wall Street needs retail investors to keep spending and chasing returns at all times. They need to eat into our money. And the NYT article Sommer wrote hides out of view, but reminds us that chasing short term forecasts is futile, massively unreliable and worse, destructive, while investing for the very longterm -diversified and low cost, and don't trade at all, is much more reliable for actual returns and growth. |
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#47 | RE: The 2023 economy...your thoughts?
Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:27 pm (Last edited: Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:30 pm)
Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:27 pm (Last edited: Fri Dec 30, 2022 4:30 pm)
Zitat von Mr. 36654 im Beitrag #45 Point taken. But we ARE seeing cracks in corporate profitability now (lot of earnings failing to meet expectations) and stocks are following. Once we hit peak bad news, stocks will have discounted the worst and begin rising, which creates the perception that there's no correlation. I think that "peak bad news" point is still a ways off. Whatever happens, it'll be a "surprise" to the media, and they'll say "Nobody could have seen that coming". Same as in 2008, yet somehow Michael Burry saw it...lol! |
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Zitat von BEARR im Beitrag #47Zitat von Mr. 36654 im Beitrag #45 Why would you expect the "media" to be any more knowledgeable about the financial risks that AIG, Lehman, Merrill, etc? Yes, CNBC, Fox Business, etc are operating on a click-bait basis for rating and ad revenues. So, what would Ricardo's Rational Man do? I see three options; 1) Change TV channel 2) Turn-off TV or 3) End the cable subscription Options 2 and 3 will provide more riding time. Option 3 will yield more money for gas and provide more riding time. I'm pretty sure, Ricardo's Ration Man will pick Option 3, if he rides.
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#49 | RE: The 2023 economy...your thoughts?
Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:35 pm (Last edited: Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:58 pm)
Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:35 pm (Last edited: Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:58 pm)
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Ha! I don't "expect the media" to do anything but assist in the "fleecing of the lambs". In that, they are quite adept. |
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Zitat von BEARR im Beitrag #47Zitat von Mr. 36654 im Beitrag #45 the thing about corporate 'targets/expectations' is that they are as vague and murky as your average swamp. And there is so much spin when it comes to yearly reviews and shareholder communication depending on what and how was achieved. $1B profits can be an extraordinary achievement in challenging environment or a reason to jump ship stock-wise when from the elusive objective and rational viewpoint it is a very reasonable performance against the market in the given period. I work for a multi-national and the perceived accuracy of reporting for internal data and by extent any independent audit is about as shaky as possible while still standing up - a lot like a jenga tower. Any forecasts will be revised over and over again. Now couple that with the modern state of the news in general regardless of political bias which shouldn't even be there - where the headline (all-caps) can only ever be one of the extremes to drive clicks, ad revenue, likes, shares, comments... 2023 EXPECTED TO SINK WORLD ECONOMY, YOU WOULDN'T BELIEVE THE DATA, WE'RE ALL GOING TO STARVE OR EAT THE NEIGHBORS or 2023 FORECAST INCREDIBLY PROMISING, SAY ECONOMY EXPERTS, GOLDEN BULLION FOR EVERYONE, PLACE DEPOSITS FOR HAWAII VACATION REAL ESTATE BEFORE IT'S GONE
Year-round riding enthusiast i.e. seasonal motorcycle popsicle.
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