Off Topic » OT: Time to "buckle up"?

Global events are heating up. No one knows where the "war" in Iran is going, not even the ones who started it (according to news reports). These things have a way of spiraling out of control. Oil prices are already reflecting the potential for severe disruption, given the action in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to missile strikes on oil refineries in the Mideast. Interest rates have risen sharply in the past two days, and further restriction of oil supplies could push them much higher.

What does this mean for the average person? Too soon to tell, but worrying signs are appearing that indicate this isn't going to be a "quickie" action, where everything goes back to normal in a few days.

While the mideast turmoil is affecting oil prices, interest rates and stock market levels, there's also a private credit situation unfolding that threatens a further disruption of financial markets. Lloyd Blankfein, former Goldman Sachs CEO is warning of a possible crash (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...man-sachs-boss/).

We've had an extended period of "good times", pretty much since 2008 (excepting COVID). The time for caution is probably here.

Go for a ride...

No worries.

I've had a sense of "what's coming" since 2000. Be it one thing or another. What will happen will happen. You and I have little to no power to stop it.

The least the U.S. and Israel could have done is to wait until the Ides of March before starting another war.

Zitat von zer0netgain im Beitrag #2

---

No worries.

I've had a sense of "what's coming" since 2000. Be it one thing or another. What will happen will happen. You and I have little to no power to stop it.

---

deleted

Zitat von Richard230 im Beitrag #3

---

The least the U.S. and Israel could have done is to wait until the Ides of March before starting another war.

---

Zitat von wessie im Beitrag #5

---

The guy that lasted 11 days in the White House trying to wrangle Trump 1.0 and now a significant critic of the 2.0 regime was interviewed in the Guardian. of course he is plugging his forthcoming book and Goalhanger podcast. He made this comment which I found interesting

Zitat

---

His (Mooch's) theory is that US history goes in 80-year cycles: “We have the Declaration of Independence; 80 years later, we have the civil war, to clean up the stain in the constitution related to slavery. We then have 80 more years. We go into the Great Depression, and then ultimately, because of the Great Depression, two catastrophic world wars, and we clean that up, we redeem ourselves. We have 80 years of peace and prosperity, but now we’re at that inflection point again.”

---

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...mp-inner-circle

---

There is actually a thing known as "national bankruptcy" where America (if not others) has been at least twice already. I'm going off memory here as the articles I've seen on this topic have long since been shoved down the "memory hole."

The terms (as I recall) run in 70-year cycles. The nation either repays the debt at the end of the period or it has to restructure the bankruptcy. It's not a court function...at least not formally in the USA...probably done through international agreements, but anyone who knows US fiscal policy knows the USA has basically been managing a bankruptcy repayment plan for well over a century. It's always been about keeping plates spinning in the air rather than paying down the debt.

Thing is, with every cycle, something new must be pledged as surety. As I recall, this happened after the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, then World War II...all to deal with the mountains of debt the USA was carrying after those events but had no way to pay off. If I recall correctly, first the government had to pledge the liquid assets of the USA as surety. Then they had to pledge real estate. Finally, they had to pledge the individual wealth of American citizens. So, what is left to pledge as surety?

The US government had a golden opportunity during the so-called "Great Financial Crisis" in 2007-2008, but they caved in to the fear conjured up by Hank Paulson, who told Congress that without $700 million, the globe would be plunged into a great depression. The money printers got plugged in and what was then a mere $700 million has ballooned into many, many trillions of dollars.

The next "crisis" will not have a backstop. The US simply cannot afford it. It is paying over $1 trillion per year in interest on existing debt now. That's more than the entire bailout in 2008.

Maybe there's a way out of this, but in 2008, the government would have been better served to let the collapse happen without intervening. We are now paying the price, and will continue to do so.

Zitat von BEARR im Beitrag #9

---

Maybe there's a way out of this, but in 2008, the government would have been better served to let the collapse happen without intervening. We are now paying the price, and will continue to do so.

---

I when I was in first and second grades in San Francisco, I used to fill up a card once a week with a dime that fit into dime-sized holes in the card. Each page of the card held 10 or 20 dimes. Once you completely filled up the card, you could turn it in to buy a $25 War Bond for $18.75 (if I recall correctly). War bonds were very popular back then and no doubt helped to balance the government budget a bit.

The amounts of money involved now are so staggering that they have lost all meaning. A billion here, a billion there...so what? Print more.

This is specious reasoning, though. No matter what kind of bill you are presented, the bill will always be due and payable. You can play with numbers, but in the end, you have to pay...one way or another.

We are in a "doom loop" and the bank account is nearly empty.

Spend more on a war...it's what's been done down the ages, when fiscal and monetary shenanigans leave no alternative. What's a life worth, though? Right...priceless.

What did Mark Twain famously say? "Suppose I'm a congressman, and suppose I'm an idiot...but I repeat myself."

CORRECTION: Paulson asked for $700 BILLION not million in the 2008 crisis. Still...chicken feed by today's standards.

Zitat von BEARR im Beitrag #9

---

The US simply cannot afford it. It is paying over $1 trillion per year in interest on existing debt now. That's more than the entire bailout in 2008.

---